9314.0 - Sales of New Motor Vehicles, Australia, Jun 2003

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 17/07/2003

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Main Features
About this Release
Bumper sales of new motor vehicles: ABS (Media Release)

EXPLANATORY NOTES
GLOSSARY

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

JUNE 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles rose for the eighth consecutive month in June 2003 to reach a record high of 77,396. This is 11.9% higher than the June 2002 estimate.

The trend increase in total new motor vehicle sales was 1,067 or 1.4% in June 2003 compared with May 2003. New passenger vehicle sales and new other vehicle sales contributed 0.9% and 0.5% respectively to this increase.

Only the Northern Territory recorded a fall from May 2003 to June 2003 (0.4%) while all of the other states and the Australian Capital Territory recorded increases in total new motor vehicle sales. Tasmania (3.5%) and Western Australia (2.8%) recorded trend growth above the national average.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates remained steady with 77,330 total new motor vehicle sales in June 2003 compared with 77,349 in May 2003.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	RELEASE DATE
July 2003	20 August 2003
August 2003	17 September 2003
September 2003	17 October 2003
October 2003	19 November 2003
November 2003	17 December 2003
December 2003	21 January 2004

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).

TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1	The July 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the June 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.
2	The July 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the June 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Graph: New motor vehicle sales, Total vehicles - long term

Graph: New motor vehicle sales, Total vehicles - Short term

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales


		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (a) (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2002	April	42,052	21,834	63,886	-6.2	-5.1	-5.8
	May	46,448	26,675	73,123	10.5	22.2	14.5
	June	49,101	29,680	78,781	5.7	11.3	7.7
	July	45,923	23,859	69,782	-6.5	-19.6	-11.4
	August	45,122	24,525	69,647	-1.7	2.8	-0.2
	September	43,396	22,638	66,034	-3.8	-7.7	-5.2
	October	48,269	24,063	72,332	11.2	6.3	9.5
	November	47,229	24,346	71,575	-2.2	1.2	-1.0
	December	45,317	22,656	67,973	-4.0	-6.9	-5.0

2003	January	40,015	21,155	61,170	-11.7	-6.6	-10.0
	February	43,677	23,058	66,735	9.2	9.0	9.1
	March	49,921	26,192	76,113	14.3	13.6	14.1
	April	44,602	24,263	68,865	-10.7	-7.4	-9.5
	May	49,646	28,616	78,262	11.3	17.9	13.6
	June	57,086	34,972	92,058	15.0	22.2	17.6

Seasonally Adjusted

2002	April	45,648	23,651	69,299	5.2	8.2	6.2
	May	45,401	24,316	69,717	-0.5	2.8	0.6
	June	44,705	23,749	68,454	-1.5	-2.3	-1.8
	July	44,390	24,048	68,438	-0.7	1.3	0.0
	August	45,301	25,217	70,518	2.1	4.9	3.0
	September	45,947	25,194	71,141	1.4	-0.1	0.9
	October	45,791	24,955	70,746	-0.3	-0.9	-0.6
	November	45,464	23,406	68,870	-0.7	-6.2	-2.7
	December	41,865	20,783	62,648	-7.9	-11.2	-9.0

2003	January	49,584	28,103	77,687	18.4	35.2	24.0
	February	46,685	24,775	71,460	-5.8	-11.8	-8.0
	March	47,875	25,032	72,907	2.5	1.0	2.0
	April	48,507	26,090	74,597	1.3	4.2	2.3
	May	50,185	27,164	77,349	3.5	4.1	3.7
	June	50,132	27,198	77,330	-0.1	0.1	-0.0

Trend

2002	April	45,308	23,555	68,863	-0.8	1.1	-0.1
	May	44,990	23,834	68,824	-0.7	1.2	-0.1
	June	44,971	24,216	69,187	0.0	1.6	0.5
	July	45,060	24,484	69,544	0.2	1.1	0.5
	August	45,126	24,581	69,707	0.1	0.4	0.2
	September	45,113	24,454	69,567	0.0	-0.5	-0.2
	October	45,163	24,265	69,428	0.1	-0.8	-0.2
	November	45,355	24,165	69,520	0.4	-0.4	0.1
	December	45,724	24,235	69,959	0.8	0.3	0.6

2003	January	46,327	24,549	70,876	1.3	1.3	1.3
	February	47,149	25,101	72,250	1.8	2.2	1.9
	March	48,054	25,722	73,776	1.9	2.5	2.1
	April	48,874	26,267	75,141	1.7	2.1	1.9
	May	49,583	26,746	76,329	1.5	1.8	1.6
	June	50,234	27,162	77,396	1.3	1.6	1.4

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.

Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration (a)


		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)

Original

2002	April	22,428	17,250	11,671	3,985	5,642	1,103	624	1,183	63,886
	May	25,763	19,540	13,507	4,648	6,344	1,343	763	1,215	73,123
	June	27,496	20,296	15,035	5,143	7,348	1,294	813	1,356	78,781
	July	24,643	18,721	13,462	4,457	5,562	1,174	579	1,184	69,782
	August	23,456	18,942	13,516	4,537	6,102	1,311	597	1,186	69,647
	September	22,236	18,765	12,497	4,187	5,493	1,239	507	1,110	66,034
	October	24,618	20,185	13,456	4,499	6,627	1,203	580	1,164	72,332
	November	24,349	19,829	13,224	4,641	6,320	1,398	628	1,186	71,575
	December	21,741	19,706	12,672	4,531	5,989	1,584	585	1,165	67,973

2003	January	20,648	16,490	11,632	3,988	5,762	1,025	534	1,091	61,170
	February	21,965	18,152	12,956	4,754	6,164	1,069	582	1,093	66,735
	March	25,541	20,408	14,843	5,147	6,917	1,218	769	1,270	76,113
	April	23,588	18,368	13,386	4,507	5,948	1,177	728	1,163	68,865
	May	26,259	21,053	14,967	5,273	7,127	1,454	789	1,340	78,262
	June	31,168	24,132	18,084	6,089	8,662	1,549	866	1,508	92,058

Seasonally Adjusted

2002	April	24,378	18,490	12,743	4,359	6,140	1,254	609	1,326	69,299
	May	24,448	18,804	12,968	4,370	6,041	1,315	659	1,112	69,717
	June	23,768	18,491	12,265	4,448	6,334	1,299	634	1,215	68,454
	July	23,332	18,419	13,518	4,360	5,904	1,210	586	1,109	68,438
	August	24,094	18,986	13,768	4,427	6,190	1,256	617	1,180	70,518
	September	23,778	19,665	13,771	4,581	6,154	1,292	596	1,304	71,141
	October	24,025	19,026	13,887	4,434	6,434	1,225	588	1,127	70,746
	November	23,130	19,251	12,847	4,426	6,192	1,289	617	1,118	68,870
	December	20,809	17,721	11,628	4,138	5,564	1,080	611	1,097	62,648

2003	January	26,458	21,064	14,557	5,236	6,981	1,359	673	1,359	77,687
	February	23,770	19,372	13,648	5,110	6,444	1,271	674	1,171	71,460
	March	24,007	20,083	14,169	4,952	6,459	1,308	718	1,211	72,907
	April	25,777	19,695	14,567	5,044	6,203	1,333	706	1,272	74,597
	May	25,698	21,106	15,000	5,058	7,089	1,435	697	1,266	77,349
	June	25,969	21,134	14,169	5,062	7,468	1,520	660	1,348	77,330

Trend

2002	April	24,087	18,536	12,696	4,342	6,159	1,257	629	1,157	68,863
	May	23,989	18,500	12,805	4,366	6,114	1,259	624	1,167	68,824
	June	23,956	18,618	13,039	4,401	6,111	1,265	619	1,178	69,187
	July	23,878	18,779	13,283	4,419	6,126	1,267	611	1,181	69,544
	August	23,737	18,919	13,443	4,418	6,144	1,261	604	1,181	69,707
	September	23,535	18,998	13,439	4,417	6,155	1,248	599	1,176	69,567
	October	23,379	19,081	13,335	4,444	6,180	1,237	601	1,171	69,428
	November	23,348	19,176	13,233	4,524	6,217	1,233	613	1,176	69,520
	December	23,468	19,289	13,246	4,649	6,254	1,236	634	1,183	69,959

2003	January	23,771	19,461	13,436	4,792	6,310	1,252	658	1,196	70,876
	February	24,240	19,724	13,779	4,923	6,407	1,282	678	1,217	72,250
	March	24,761	20,045	14,140	5,021	6,550	1,325	691	1,243	73,776
	April	25,233	20,357	14,423	5,075	6,719	1,372	697	1,265	75,141
	May	25,645	20,648	14,626	5,104	6,905	1,417	698	1,286	76,329
	June	26,011	20,943	14,764	5,118	7,095	1,466	695	1,304	77,396

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.